July 17, 2018
I have some thoughts on Russia that I want you to think about, and act on. I think it is important, so it is another of my long reads. You might find it interesting: Yes, dear grandkids, I know I have written about this a few times. But Russia is really important. Russia actually has enormous economic challenges and a huge demographic crisis looming in the coming decades. The last thing you want is a failed Russia state because Russia is the only country that could destroy the world as we know it in an afternoon. And the tragedy is that there are many things that could be discussed with Russia.
Russia, this is the country from whom we bought Alaska. No war was involved.
Russia was this sort of huge, quaint, autocratic semi monarchy until after the start of WW I, and then the Communist revolution occurred. It stayed autocratic, but it’s system of economics moved 180 degrees from us.
(Its’ government was always 180 degrees from us.)
They left WW I. We never fought Russia in WW I.
So, through the 20’s and 30’s Russia has its own problems.It aligned with
all of the “stans” and Ukraine and other states to create the USSR in a 1922 treaty.
Remember how weak Russia was in 1922. War was not involved.
Then Hitler goes mad and Stalin enters into a defensive treaty in August,
1939. USSR had not conquered anybody. Hitler now controlled much of the
East and was on his way to Poland in September. USSR was no friend of the “West” when
it entered into that treaty; but it was clearly a defensive move. Plus it
had an autocrat running the country in Stalin. Then, June 22, 1941, Hitler
turns on the USSR.
What happened after that: This is so profound it is wroth quoting: From
Wikipedia
“World War II fatalities of the Soviet Union from all related causes
numbered more than 20,000,000, both civilian and military, although the
exact figures are disputed. The number 20 million was considered official
during the Soviet era. The Russian government puts the Soviet war dead at
26.6 million based on a 1993 study by the Russian Academy of Sciences. This
includes 8,668,400 military deaths as calculated by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
“Officials at the Russian Central Defense Ministry Archive maintain that
their database lists the names of roughly 14 million dead and missing
service personnel.
“It is argued that 2.4 million people are still officially considered missing in action.
Of the 9.5 million buried in mass graves, 6 million are unidentified.
Some Russian politicians and journalists put the total number of losses in
the war, both civilian and military, at over 40 million.”
We need to pause. 9 million soldiers, but maybe 14 m. 20 million citizens
but maybe 40 million. We lost about 410,000 soldiers, killed.
Russia had almost been destroyed by Germany, attacked from the west. About
130 years earlier, Napoleon almost destroyed Russia, invading it with the
largest army even assembled in history until then. In a one day battle alone there
were 70,000 casualties. Meanwhile, in between these events, the Japanese
thumped the Russians in a war that ended in 1904. Numbers of dead Russians
are imprecise, but 40,000, plus or minus, is a good range. Ask yourself
this question: what causes paranoia?
So, after WW II, USSR took over about every country that was on its
western front. Was that morally right and just? Of course not. Can you
understand why they might have viewed that as critical to national
survival? Nation states have one primary purpose – to advance the
national interests of that nation state. Everything else becomes secondary.
So we had a slightly paranoid USSR and a gigantically powerful USA, unaccustomed
to being a world power, facing off. And that went on for decades until the
USSR economic system collapsed from the weight of trying to keep up with
the US, and also because it wasn’t an effective economic system.
Yes, the USSR was our enemy. They had moved into Eastern Europe, the iron curtain had
been raised, and we had to stop the expansion, and we did. But, we never
fought a head to head war. They never sought our territory or shipping
lanes and we never sought theirs. They did much to hurt us in Korea, but
it was the North Koreans and the Chinese that we fought head to head in
battle. They did much to hurt us in Vietnam, but it was Vietnamese
nationalists we fought against, fighting for a system of government that
we didn’t support. But, in Afghanistan, the tables were turned. We did
everything we could to hurt them, and we were very effective, and they
were forced out by those who became the Taliban. The Russians did not
meddle in Gulf War I, and not much in Gulf War II. Syria has been their
client state as long as Egypt has been ours. In fact, Egypt first allied with USSR
during the years of Nasser, circa 1956.
The USSR collapses. It’s a big victory for the West. But, H. W. Bush puts
out instructions, don’t gloat. Also, his administration cut a deal with
Russia that, in exchange for German reunification, NATO would not be
pushed eastward. The deal was never inked, but there are thousands of
pages testifying that this was the understanding. After Bush, we reneged. By 1999,
Poland joined NATO.
Now, pause for a moment. Don’t think about deals, or agreements, or
expressed words. Just think about your selfish national interest. If you
were Russia, and NATO were being pushed toward Moscow, wouldn’t you be a
bit nervous. Would you be a friend to the West. The US is great friends
now with Germany and Japan. But, these countries have a bad history with
Russia.
One other thing. In 1941, the USSR was about 170 million people. Today,
Russia is 143 million. The Russian economy today is, more or less, about
$1.6 trillion. California is $2.7 trillion. In 1941, USA was $126 billion
as measured at that time. It seems that the US was about 3X USSR, but such
comparisons are difficult to make. Today, the US is at least 12X Russia.
So, while I know many of you younger folks don’t read history, don’t like to
even read books, or have time – which I have – don’t you think it is worth a thought or two to reflect on this
history when someone asks you, hey, do you think it would be a good idea
to have a better relationship with Russia? In fact, I’ll go further. Don’t
you think it would be a good idea if the Russian economy were successful?
After all, they have lots of nuclear weapons. Do you really want a failed
state with a whole bunch of uncontrolled nuclear weapons? In fact, as the
Yeltsin government crumbled, don’t you imagine that there were hundreds of US
government folks, across our defense and security agencies, in a near full
panic over this situation. If they were not, they should have been.
So, wouldn’t it be a good idea to get along with Russia?
Did the Russians attack us with cyber warfare? Of course. They are scared
shitless of us. And perhaps they should be. Did the Obama Administration
meddle in Russian elections? Do your own research? Apparently, we did,
quite a lot. With all of our capability, if we did not, we are not very
competent.
In my judgment, we are the most beneficent great power that has
ever existed. But don’t think for a moment that we don’t act like a great
power. We use our muscle all over the place to support the policies and
practices that we deem to be in support of the national self interests of
the United States. We are an arrogant nation, and I am ok with that.
To expect less would be naive.
What makes the US so exceptional is we don’t do it all
of the time and we occasionally take the interests of other states into
consideration. That’s enough. That may make us unique among great powers throughout history.
But, I think we should have a better relationship with the Russians, that we are
not blameless for the mutual anger and conflict, and that there is way
more we could agree on, because of who we are historically and culturally,
that we must disagree on.
So, let’s not make this about Donald Trump. let’s make this about Russia and the USA. And let’s work hard to get our interests more aligned, and quit threatening each other. There is nothing in our history that stands in the way of these changes.
