NOVEMBER 15, 2019
“Russia and Ukraine”
If you have read my thoughts you know that, many times, I have pushed back on US policy to push NATO into the center of Russia’s orbit.
Let’s start with this premise from the novel ” To Kill a Mockingbird”. Standing in a person’s shoes is one of the first things Atticus explains to Scout in the novel. “You never really understand a person until you consider things from his point of view…until you climb in his skin and walk around in it.”
Since the end of the Cold War the United States has never looked at Russia from within its skin, or climbed into their shoes. Rather, we made all sorts of assumptions about Russia’s natural gravitation to liberal democracy, with a market economy similar to ours. At the same time, we extended NATO to about 100 miles from Moscow. This was really bad policy, and one generally warned against by George H. W Bush.
Now, pause. Why should you care? Easy answer. Russia is the only country which can destroy the United States in 30 minutes. Further, Russia, with the US, are really the only countries which, if careless, could allow leakage of nuclear materials to very, very bad characters, and probably stateless characters. Few things are more important for the world than the US and Russia working together to secure our nuclear arsenals we have and to control nuclear proliferation. Also, because of Russia’s very size their cooperation with the global community is also necessary to develop and execute the right policies regarding climate change.
As Russia evolved after the Cold War, and especially after Putin took over when Russia was close to becoming a failed state, it returned to its historical roots – generally central rule with an emphasis on Mother Russia, not on individual Russians. This is the Russia of at least the past 300 years. This is their culture. During the past several decades, US policy has too frequently been based on a sense that we can only deal effectively with a Russia that is a liberal democracy. This is highly problematic.
US Foreign Policy should be based on pursuing the national interests of the United States. At the top of those interests, as it relates to Russia, is preventing nuclear war. Probably next on that list is avoiding any serious hot military engagement with Russia which could lead to nuclear war. Don’t for a moment understand this as allowing the Russians to trample on our interests. The key is knowing what is vital to us, and vital to them and working from there.
Now, let’s visit Ukraine for a moment. Most of you were not alive during the Cuban Missile crisis. Two people probably singularly did more to prevent a nuclear confrontation, and those two people were Kennedy and Khrushchev, the Russian Premier, both of who went against their military advice. (Kennedy for sure. I am guessing somewhat that this equally pertains to Khrushchev,.) Nikita Khrushchev, the head of the USSR, was a Ukranian. Ukraine has a long border with Russia. Crimia is a major access point to open southern seas, which is not accessible from Russian land. So with respect to vital interests, it is ignorant to assume that our interest in Ukraine are even on the same planet with the Russians. Remember, aside from nuclear weapons, we are the super power. We are the ones who stuck it to Russia after the collapse of the Wall, and pushed NATO into their face. We are the largest economy. We are a much greater threat to Russia in almost every way than they are to us – that is, if you look at this from within their skin.
So, the author of the attached says, let Russia be Russia. Quit trying to demand that they adopt our way of life. Quit demonizing Putin when in fact, if you compare the Russia he took over – close to a failed state – to that which exists now he has served his people and Country quite well. So, deal with him! Don’t demand what we will never get, and don’t absolutely need. Demand what we must have. It is a long enough list.
As to Ukraine, there are many things we have done, can continue to do, and should do to support them as an independent nation state. But, Ukraine does not need to be in NATO to meet our interests. And Ukrainians do not need to run their country in our image to do that. And Ukraine does not need to have Russia as an enemy to do that. Let’s be damn sure that when we assess Ukrainian interests we do so from within their skin, not ours – a mistake which we are always at risk making, and an error in perception that flows not just a little bit from the current Congressional hearings.
Thanks for reading.
More “On Russia”
November, 2019
Sometimes in order to understand complex relationships you must investigate the history of your subjects. I believe that even a limited understanding of Russian history is very helpful in navigating through Russia and the West, under Putin and Trump.
The tragedy is that there are many things that could be discussed with Russia – consider Fiona Hill’s recent Congressional testimony – and should be discussed with Russia.
Russia, that is the country from whom we bought Alaska. No war was
involved.
Russia was this huge, autocratic semi monarchy until after the start of WW I, and then the Communist revolution occurred. It stayed autocratic, but it’s system of economics moved 180 degrees from us. (Its’ government was always 180 degrees from us.)
The USSR withdrew from WW I. We did not fight Russia in WW I.
Through the 20’s and 30’s, Russia has its own problems. It aligned with all of the “stans” and Ukraine and other states to create the USSR in a 1922 treaty. Russia did this out of weakness. A hot war was not involved.
Then Hitler goes mad and Stalin enters into a defensive treaty in August, 1939. Hitler now controlled much of the East and was on his way to Poland in September. The USSR was no friend of the “West” when it entered into that treaty; but it was clearly a defensive move. Plus it had an autocrat running the country in Stalin.
Then, June 22, 1941, Hitler turns on the USSR.
What happened after that: This is so profound it is wroth quoting: From
Wikipedia
“World War II fatalities of the Soviet Union from all related causes
numbered more than 20,000,000, both civilian and military, although the
exact figures are disputed. The number 20 million was considered official
during the Soviet era. The Russian government puts the Soviet war dead at
26.6 million based on a 1993 study by the Russian Academy of Sciences. This
includes 8,668,400 military deaths as calculated by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
“Officials at the Russian Central Defense Ministry Archive maintain that
their database lists the names of roughly 14 million dead and missing
service personnel.
“It is argued that 2.4 million people are still officially considered missing in action.
Of the 9.5 million buried in mass graves, 6 million are unidentified.
Some Russian politicians and journalists put the total number of losses in
the war, both civilian and military, at over 40 million.”
We need to pause. 9 million soldiers, but maybe 14 m. 20 million citizens
but maybe 40 million. We lost about 410,000 soldiers, killed.
Russia had almost been destroyed by Germany, attacked from the west. About 130 years earlier, Napoleon almost destroyed Russia, invading it with the largest army even assembled in history until then. In a one-day battle alone there were 70,000 casualties. Meanwhile, in between these events, the Japanese thumped the Russians in a war that ended in 1904. The numbers of dead Russian are imprecise, but 40,000, plus or minus, is a good range.
Ask yourself this question: what causes paranoia?
So, after WW II, USSR took over about every country that was on its western front. Was that morally right and just? Of course not. Can you understand why they might have viewed that as critical to national
survival? Nation states have one primary purpose – to advance the national interests of that nation state. Everything else becomes secondary.
So we had a slightly paranoid USSR and a gigantically powerful USA, unaccustomed to being a world power, facing off. And that went on for decades until the USSR economic system collapsed from the weight of trying to keep up with the US, and also because it wasn’t an effective economic system.
Yes, the USSR was our enemy. They had moved into Eastern Europe, the iron curtain had been raised, and we had to stop the expansion, and we did. But, we never fought a head to head war. They never sought our territory or shipping lanes and we never sought theirs. They did much to hurt us in Korea, but it was the North Koreans and the Chinese that we fought head to head in battle. They did much to hurt us in Vietnam, but it was Vietnamese nationalists we fought against, fighting for a system of government on their land that we didn’t support. But, in Afghanistan, the tables were turned. We did
everything we could to hurt the USSR, and we were very effective, and they were forced out by those who became the Taliban. The Russians did not meddle in Gulf War I, and not much in Gulf War II. Syria has been their client state as long as Egypt has been ours. In fact, Egypt first allied with USSR
during the years of Nasser, circa 1956.
The USSR collapses. It’s a big victory for the West. But, H. W. Bush puts out instructions, don’t gloat. Also, his administration cut a deal with Russia that, in exchange for German reunification, NATO would not be
pushed eastward. The deal was never inked, but there are thousands of pages testifying that this was the understanding. After Bush, we reneged.
By 1999, Poland joined NATO.
Now, pause for a moment. Don’t think about deals, or agreements, or expressed words. Just think about your selfish national interest. If you were Russia, and NATO were being pushed toward Moscow, wouldn’t you be a bit nervous. Would you be a friend to the West. The US is great friends
now with Germany and Japan. But, these countries have a bad history with Russia.
One other thing. In 1941, the USSR was about 170 million people. Today, Russia is 143 million. The Russian economy today is, more or less, about $1.6 trillion. California is $2.7 trillion. In 1941, USA was $126 billion as measured at that time. It seems that the US was about 3X USSR, but such comparisons are difficult to make. Today, the US is at least 12X Russia.
So, while I know many of you younger folks don’t read history, don’t like to even read books, or have time – which I have – don’t you think it is worth a thought or two to reflect on this history when someone asks you, hey, do you think it would be a good idea o have a better relationship with Russia?
In fact, I’ll go further. Don’t you think it would be a good idea if the Russian economy were successful?
After all, they have lots of nuclear weapons. Do you really want a failed state with a whole bunch of uncontrolled nuclear weapons? In fact, as the Yeltsin government crumbled, don’t you imagine that there were hundreds of US government folks, across our defense and security agencies, in a near full
panic over this situation. If they were not, they should have been.
So, wouldn’t it be a good idea to get along with Russia?
Did the Russians attack us with cyber warfare? Of course. They are scared shitless of us. And perhaps they should be. Did the Obama Administration meddle in Russian elections? Do your own research? Apparently, we did, quite a lot. With all of our capability, if we did not, we are not very
competent.
In my judgment, we are the most beneficent great power that has ever existed. But don’t think for a moment that we don’t act like a great power. We use our muscle all over the place to support the policies and practices that we deem to be in support of the national self interests of the United States. We are an arrogant nation, and I am ok with that.
To expect less would be naive.
What makes the US so exceptional is we don’t do it all of the time and we occasionally take the interests of other states into consideration. USAID has done enormous work, under different agency names, since the end of WW II to help build the economies of so many nation states. Ask India. That’s enough. That may make us unique among great powers throughout history.
I feel very sad that my President doesn’t do foreign policy very well. I feel sad that he lacks a sense of history. I feel sad that he feels he has all of the answers and does not need to listen to anyone. It deeply bothers me that he is so disrespectful of expertise. Expertise, funded by the military (DARPA), created the Internet. I feel sad that he doesn’t always think very well on his feet. I feel more than sad that
he seems, at times both paranoid and narcissistic.
But, I think he is correct that we should have a better relationship with the Russians, that we are
not blameless for the mutual anger and conflict, and that there is way more we can agree on, because of who we are historically and culturally, that we must disagree on. And I think that Fiona Hill believes exactly what I wrote.
